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Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean and other world regions [recurso electrónico] : an analysis of climatic effects, convergence and catch-up /

por Lachaud, Michée Arnold; Bravo-Ureta, Boris E; Ludena, Carlos E.
Series: Working Papers Series / BID ; 607.Editor: Washington : BID, september 2015Descripción: 61 p.Tema(s): CELAC | CAMBIOS CLIMATICOS | DESARROLLO ECONOMICO | DESASTRES NATURALES | AGRICULTURA | PRODUCTIVIDAD | América Latina | Caribe
Contenidos:
I. Introduction -- II. Litrature Overview -- III. Conceptual Framework -- IV. Data -- V Results -- VI. Sumary and Conlusions -- VII. Policy Implications -- References -- Appendixes.
Resumen: This study estimates Climate Adjusted Total Factor Productivity (CATFP) for agriculture in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries, while also providing comparisons with several regions of the world. Climatic variability is introduced in Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) models by including average annual maximum temperature, precipitation and its monthly intra-year standard deviations, and the number of rainy days. Climatic conditions have a negative impact on production becoming stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. An Error Correction Model is applied to investigate catch-up and convergence across LAC countries. Argentina defines the frontier in LAC and TFP convergence is found across all South American countries, Costa Rica, Mexico, Barbados and The Bahamas. Using IPCC 2014 scenarios, the study shows that climatic variability induces significant reductions in productivity (2.3 percent to 10.7 percent), over the 2013-2040 period. Estimated output losses due to climatic variability range from 9 percent to 20 percent in the LAC region depending on the scenario considered.
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I. Introduction -- II. Litrature Overview -- III. Conceptual Framework -- IV. Data -- V Results -- VI. Sumary and Conlusions -- VII. Policy Implications -- References -- Appendixes.

This study estimates Climate Adjusted Total Factor Productivity (CATFP) for agriculture in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries, while also providing comparisons with several regions of the world. Climatic variability is introduced in Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) models by including average annual maximum temperature, precipitation and its monthly intra-year standard deviations, and the number of rainy days. Climatic conditions have a negative impact on production becoming stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. An Error Correction Model is applied to investigate catch-up and convergence across LAC countries. Argentina defines the frontier in LAC and TFP convergence is found across all South American countries, Costa Rica, Mexico, Barbados and The Bahamas. Using IPCC 2014 scenarios, the study shows that climatic variability induces significant reductions in productivity (2.3 percent to 10.7 percent), over the 2013-2040 period. Estimated output losses due to climatic variability range from 9 percent to 20 percent in the LAC region depending on the scenario considered.

Consultado : 06 setiembre 205

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